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Investment risk                                                       Chapter 6


         Chapter 6

         Investment risk
                                                                              NQF
                                                                              Relevant to
         Superior investment returns cannot be achieved without taking on risk.   119917: 1, 4
         Identifying how much risk (and what kind of risk) is worth taking on is the   242594: 1 - 4
         key to successful asset management. The most fabulous returns can      242612: 4
                                                                              243130: 1, 4
         be achieved by having all your eggs in one basket – provided you choose  243148: 2, 5
         exactly  the  right  basket.  But  picking  the  right  basket  is  notoriously   243153: 3, 4
         difficult,  and  for  this  reason  diversification  is  a  widely  accepted
         strategy  for  reducing  risk.  Too  much  diversification  leads  to  mediocre  returns,
         however, and badly implemented diversification can be self-defeating.
           Another  basic  principle  of  investment  is  to  match  the  financial  needs  of  the  investor  with  the
         risk/return profile of the investment. The investments appropriate to each person vary according
         to the investment term, income, available capital and even the emotional resilience of the investor.
         Collective investment scheme (CIS) managers have designed investment products to meet a broad
         range of investment needs and objectives, and this proliferation of products creates many more
         permutations along the risk/return and diversification continuum. But to understand the pitfalls and
         benefits associated with different products, a general understanding of investment risk is essential.
         What is risk?
           There is no one definition of risk and no one answer to the problem of managing risk.
           For some, “risk” is synonymous with the threat of loss. For these people an investment is risky if
         there is any chance of a decrease in the value of the starting capital. Some individuals think of “risk”
         as the prospect of total loss.
           For others, risk is another word for unpredictability. This is closer to the formal definition of risk,
         where a risky investment is one with an uncertain (but not necessarily negative) outcome.
           There are even people for whom the word risk evokes excitement and opportunity.
           Where  risk  is  a  fear  of  loss,  the  investment  objective  is  often  protection  of  capital,  which
         conventionally,  usually  means  conservative  low-return  investments.  But  this  approach  carries
         another risk: inflation risk, the risk of losing value in real terms.
           Interestingly, there is a connection between education and risk appetite. As a rule, people who
         have studied and understood the financial markets are more likely to accept a certain level of risk.
         Paradoxically, this often leads to better returns.
           The investment and advice industries are rightly concerned with measuring risk and finding ways
         to match investors with appropriate investments. This endeavour is complicated by shifting sands:
         the risks of different asset classes are not consistent over time and the circumstances of investors
         are changeable. Appropriate, conservative investment advice often condemns the investor to poor
         returns.
           In this chapter, against the background of these difficult questions, we examine the nature of risk,
         the methods used to measure risk, and the choices faced by advisers and investors.

         Risk profiling
           Many  financial  advisers  have  designed  risk  assessment  questionnaires.  Advisers  use  these
         questionnaires to evaluate the risk appetite of their clients so that they can match the client’s risk
         profile with a range of appropriate investments.
            Some questionnaires focus entirely on risk appetite; others try to evaluate risk capacity as well.
         Generally, this strategy suggests that as investors become more averse to risk, their investments



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